How the 23.3% Saleability Drop in the Royal Tunbridge Wells Property Market Might Impact Your 2024 Home Moving Plans

The Tunbridge Wells housing market, like many others, has experienced a notable shift in 2023. 

The percentage of home sales agreed and moved (completed) compared to those withdrawn from the market unsold has decreased relative to 2022.

Looking at independent data for the Tunbridge Wells area (TN1 to TN4) …

 In 2022, 64.7% of properties that left the books of Tunbridge Wells estate agents agreed a sale, exchanged contracts, and the owners moved home

(1,776 Tunbridge Wells area properties exchanged and completed vs 966 properties that withdrew from the agent’s books, unsold).

In 2023, 49.6% of properties that have left the books of Tunbridge Wells estate agents agreed a sale, exchanged contracts, and the owners moved home

(1,123 Tunbridge Wells area properties exchanged and completed vs 1,142 properties that withdrew from the agent’s books, unsold up to the 20th December 2023), meaning there has been a …

23.3% proportional reduction in the saleability of

Tunbridge Wells homes between 2022 and 2023

It's interesting to compare that with the South East regional and national stats for both years.

In the South East, 63.46% of properties were exchanged, completed, and moved in 2022, compared to 47.54% in 2023, a drop of 25.1%. Nationally, 65.55% of properties were exchanged, completed and moved in 2022 compared to 52.39% in 2023, a decline of 20.1%.

This could raise concerns among local homeowners and potential sellers. As a seasoned estate agent in Tunbridge Wells, I have observed these trends closely and offer insights into this phenomenon and strategies to enhance your home's saleability in 2024.

Understanding the Dip in Saleability in Tunbridge Wells

Economic Influences: much like the rest of the UK, Tunbridge Wells has been subject to financial pressures such as inflation and Bank of England interest rate increases. These factors have affected buyer affordability, leading to a more cautious approach to home purchasing.

Market Saturation and Buyer's Market: 2023 saw a surge in Tunbridge Wells properties on the market. This increase changed the Tunbridge Wells property market from a strong seller's market to a balanced market or even a buyer's market in some parts of Tunbridge Wells throughout 2023, where the availability of choices led to a more selective purchasing behaviour.

Changing Buyer Preferences: In Tunbridge Wells, buyer preferences have evolved. There's a growing demand for properties that offer flexible living spaces, energy efficiency, and modern amenities, which not all available homes meet.

Local Economic and Social Factors: Tunbridge Wells’ local economic and social developments, such as job market shifts and community developments, have also played a role in influencing the housing market dynamics.

Six Tips to Maximising Your Tunbridge Wells Home's Saleability in 2024

Tunbridge Wells properties are still selling, yet not at the rate they were in 2021 and 2022.

Just under 5 out of 10 local people in 2023 have sold and moved (i.e., the 49.6% figure mentioned above). If you want to avoid being in the 5 out of 10 Tunbridge Wells people who were unable to sell and move this year, there are some things that you can do to stack the cards in your favour. 

To start with, the saleability levels in Tunbridge Wells in 2023 are very similar to the saleability rates between 2014 and 2019.  

1. Strategic Pricing: Understanding the local market is critical. Homes priced correctly from the outset are more likely to attract serious buyers. This requires a deep understanding of the local market trends, something a knowledgeable estate agent can provide.

 

2. Tailoring to Buyer Preferences: Align your Tunbridge Wells home with current trends. This could mean investing in creating flexible work-from-home spaces, upgrading energy systems, or modernising key areas like kitchens and bathrooms. However, before you start spending tens of thousands of pounds on this, please do pick up the phone so I can give you the best advice for the type of property you own in Tunbridge Wells. I have lost count of the number of times I've seen a homeowner spend money on the wrong things without advice, only to find the money they spent did nothing for the value of their home nor made it more saleable. 

 

3. Effective Marketing: Utilise a comprehensive marketing strategy that includes high-quality photography, possibly virtual tours, and leveraging online social media and portals. As experts in the Tunbridge Wells property market, we can target the correct demographic and present your home in its best light.

 

4. Preparing for Viewings: First impressions matter. Ensure your home is well-presented, clean, and decluttered. We can offer personalised advice on the presentation of your home to appeal to potential buyers.

 

5. Flexibility and Negotiation: Be prepared for negotiation and show flexibility in terms of viewing times and conditions of sale. This approach can make your property more appealing compared to others on the market.

 

6. Capitalising on Local Knowledge: The unique charm and amenities of Tunbridge Wells should be highlighted. As a local market expert in the town, I can help showcase these aspects effectively to potential buyers.

The decrease in the saleability rate reflects broader economic trends and evolving buyer preferences. However, with the right approach and strategies, selling your home in 2024 can be a realistic and successful endeavour. 

By understanding the market, pricing strategically, aligning with buyer preferences, and utilising effective marketing and presentation techniques, you can significantly enhance your chances of a successful sale. 

As a Tunbridge Wells property market expert, I offer more than just transactional advice; I provide insights into what makes our local Tunbridge Wells market tick. By partnering with a knowledgeable estate agent, you can confidently navigate these challenging times and maximise your chances of a successful home sale in 2024.

The Future of Royal Tunbridge Wells House Prices

 

In the ever-changing landscape of the Tunbridge Wells property market, predicting future house price trends can be akin to navigating a labyrinth. The past two years have witnessed unprecedented upheaval, primarily due to fluctuating interest rates that significantly impacted household finances, reminiscent of the challenges not faced since 2008.

The average rates for fixed-rate mortgages have dramatically risen, notably from late 2021. This hike in the Bank of England base rates has led to a substantial increase in monthly mortgage payments, consequently affecting people's ability to purchase new homes.

However, the Tunbridge Wells property market has

begun to show signs of stabilisation.

Recently, there's been a pause in the rise of the Bank’s base interest rate, maintaining the same rate for two consecutive months after a consistent increase since late 2021. This stability is mirrored in the mortgage sector, with lenders offering more competitive rates.

As an agent who likes to analyse the Tunbridge Wells property market, I have found it difficult to predict the market trends. 

The initial forecasts by many pundits at the start of the year saw them predicting a significant decline in property prices. Savills were expecting a drop of 10% in 2023, whilst Jones Lang LaSalle predicted a 6% drop. Yet, looking at the press in the last few weeks, these opinions have been adjusted, with recent data indicating a less drastic reduction than anticipated. This trend suggests a potential levelling out of house prices soon.

Looking locally… 

Tunbridge Wells house prices are only 3.97% lower

than December 2022.

The average home in Tunbridge Wells was £477,374 in December, and the last set of figures for August showed that it had decreased to £458,438.

Overall, these statistics look very good considering the dark clouds at the start of the year, yet four months of statistics are still left before the year ends. In measuring house prices, the Land Registry is often seen as the definitive measure of local property market house prices. The issue is the time lag in the data.

However, the Land Registry house price index can be predicted with very high certainty. The key to this forward-looking perspective lies in the sale agreed (i.e., when a property becomes sold stc) pound per square foot figures.

A meticulous examination of both the £/sq.ft at sale agreed and the Land Registry Index data over the last five years by Denton House Research reveals a robust 90.5% positive relationship between the national £/sq.ft at sale agreed and the eventual national Land Registry Index four or five months later. 

For homebuyers and sellers, this insight is groundbreaking. It means that the pulse of the property market can be gauged in advance, allowing for strategic decisions well before the official figures roll in, giving them a substantial edge in the property market.

Therefore, whilst UK house prices are currently 0.236% higher from December 2022 to August 2023, the £/sq.ft data suggests they will end the year between 0.5% and 1.3% lower.

Again, nothing like the 6% to 10% drops suggested at the start of the year by many.

What about 2024 and 2025 in Tunbridge Wells? To judge that, we must look at the national picture first. 

The first half of 2024 will see continued treading water of house prices (when some months there will be a slight increase and other months where they will dip slightly). By the end of December 2024, the net effect will show national house prices around 2% to 3% lower. 

Then, in 2025, there should be a slow and steady increase in average national house prices between 2% and 3%, with more normal rises of 4% to 6% a year by 2027/8.

Another key indicator of market confidence is the surveyor sentiment, which, although still cautious, shows signs of improvement despite the lower number of property transactions predicted for the current year compared to pre-pandemic levels.

This resilience is partly attributed to homeowners managing the increased financial strain of rising interest rates better than expected, with minimal cases of forced sales or repossessions. Financial institutions have played a role, offering flexible mortgage options and extended terms.

Another factor contributing to this resilience is the financial buffer created by savings accumulated during the pandemic. These savings have allowed many to continue their purchase plans or meet increased mortgage payments. A robust employment market and rising wages have also helped mitigate the mortgage debt burden.

The landscape for first-time buyers also appears promising, with their numbers potentially recovering more rapidly than home-movers. This trend is partly fuelled by financial support from the Bank of Mum and Dad, a contrast to home-movers who might be constrained by higher rates and larger mortgages.

The rental market, however, faces continued challenges.

Some doom-mongers have pointed their finger at the buy-to-let market as signs of an impending house price crash as buy-to-let landlords are reportedly 'dumping' their rental portfolios on the property market. 

The number of landlords selling their portfolios has indeed increased. On average, 96,700 rentals are sold by UK buy-to-let landlords yearly; the tax year ending April 2023 that had risen to 153,000 UK rental properties. Many have picked up on this in the press as an indication of a massive landlord exodus. However, it must be remembered that there are 4.6 million private rental properties in the UK, so these disposals only represent 3.32% of all the rental properties. Also, whilst fewer landlords are expanding their portfolio, buy-to-let purchases (looking at the stamp duty statistics) show that they are only 22% lower than the long-term average. Interestingly, 144,000 properties were bought for buy-to-let in the tax year ending April 2023. So overall, it's not the exodus the newspapers are saying!

Therefore, with the number of buy-to-let properties available to rent remaining roughly the same as last year but demand increasing, that has created upward pressure on rents. This situation is exacerbated by landlords’ increased mortgage costs, resulting in the need for even higher rents (as I have discussed many times in my articles recently).

So, where will Tunbridge Wells house prices be in 2028?

Subject to no further black swan events getting out of control (e.g., energy prices, Ukraine, Taiwan or the Middle East, etc.), Tunbridge Wells house prices will be between 14% and 16% higher by the middle of 2028.

This is an educated guess, yet the Tunbridge Wells property market is navigating through a period of adjustment marked by gradual stabilisation and cautious optimism. While challenges remain, particularly in the rental sector, the overall outlook for the Tunbridge Wells property market suggests a slow but steady recovery, with variations in different parts of the town and a shift in buyer behaviour. As the property market adapts, potential buyers and investors must remain attuned to these evolving dynamics to make informed decisions.

As we look ahead to the future of the Tunbridge Wells property market, I'd like to hear your thoughts. Do you agree or disagree with my perspectives? Please share your views in the comments—every opinion is valuable and contributes to our understanding.

Also, don't forget to check out my previous articles on Tunbridge Wells property market growth for more insights. Your engagement and feedback are what make these discussions genuinely insightful.

Royal Tunbridge Wells House Prices Have Risen by 2.96% Since Christmas.

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Cautious Optimism in the Royal Tunbridge Wells Property Market

As the British and Tunbridge Wells property market navigates the ongoing economic turmoil, many Tunbridge Wells homeowners and landlords may feel uncertain about the future.

However, up-to-date data suggests that the 2023 property crash predicted by the many newspapers and the usual clickbait doom-mongers in the lead-up to Christmas on social media, may not be as bad as initially thought, and there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

According to property website Rightmove, the average asking price of a home for sale in the UK rose by just £14 in February.

While this might sound like cause for concern, asking prices remaining flat rather than falling could be seen as a positive sign for the year ahead. Remember that they are only what people are asking (and not necessarily achieving).

So, what exactly is happening in the Tunbridge Wells property market?

Well, it all starts with realistic pricing.

Thankfully, most Tunbridge Wells sellers are heeding their estate agents' advice and being more realistic on price, helping maintain market stability.

If you are realistic with pricing, the property should sell.

The time it takes to get a property to sale agreed upon has increased nationally from 21 days in the summer of 2022 to around 50 days in Q1 2023.

Additionally, despite the turbulent economic conditions, buyer demand is rising. Rightmove also reported in the national press that the number of people contacting estate agents has increased by 11% in the last two weeks compared to the same period in 2019.

The number of sales agreed upon has also rebounded.

Nationally, from 1st January to the 19th February 2023,

134,886 properties had been sold subject to contract in the UK.

Not a good figure when I compare it with the same year-to-date sale agreed figures from the last couple of years.

2022 - 173,607 properties sold stc

2021 - 193,607 properties sold stc

But the last couple of years have been extraordinary for the UK property market and should be taken with a pinch of salt in some respect. We must compare 2023 with more normal years, like 2017/18/19/20. This tells a different story.

2020 - 151,694 properties sold stc

2019 - 143,504 properties sold stc

2018 - 138,665 properties sold stc

2017 - 134,503 properties sold stc

The picture looks similar when we look closer to home in Tunbridge Wells.

In Tunbridge Wells (TN1/2/3/4), in the first seven weeks up to the 19th February 2022, 289 properties sold subject to contract.

This year, from the exact 1st January to the 19th February timeline, 207 properties have sold stc, which is lower, yet in the same ballpark as 2017, 2018 and 2019

Yet it is all terrific selling a house (subject to contract); it is still only sold subject to contract, meaning the sale could fall through (as it is not legally binding).

As an agent who likes to delve deeper into statistics, I considered the 'net property sales'. (Net Property Sales being the gross number of properties sold that week less the sale fall throughs in the same week).

In the three months leading up to the Mini-Budget in September 2022, there was an average of 17,801 ‘net property sales’ per week in the UK. That dropped by 34.7% two months after the Autumn Mini-Budget to an average of 11,624 ‘net property sales’ per week in the UK.

In the last five weeks, that has rebounded to 17,050

‘net property sales’ per week.

And when you consider the average for the same five weeks in 2017/18/19 was 18,330 'net property sales' per week, we are close to what many considered a normal market.

Improving market conditions has been supported by a reduction in average mortgage rates. Homebuyers taking out a five-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 15% deposit can expect a rate of 4.39% (correct at the time of writing with HSBC), down from an average of 6.1% in early October. This reduction in mortgage rates may have contributed to the recent increase in buyer demand.

These positive signs in the market have led some experts to suggest that a ‘softer landing’ for the UK property market than initially expected could be on the horizon.

The combination of sellers being more realistic on price and an improving picture of the number of agreed-upon sales suggests a more positive outlook for the property market.

I advise Tunbridge Wells homeowners coming to market in the upcoming spring season to use their agent's expertise and get the price right the first time to find the right buyer more quickly. If you do wish to chance a higher asking price, only do so for no more than two weeks. If you haven't sold by then, take the agent's advice and realign your asking price.

169 Tunbridge Wells homeowners have realigned their

asking prices since 1st January 2023.

While it's true that some first-time buyers may still be priced out of their original plans and may need to look for a cheaper property, save a bigger deposit, or factor higher monthly mortgage repayments into their budgets, there is still cause for optimism.

There is still a considerable demand for buying property in Tunbridge Wells - renting is becoming increasingly unattractive for many people as rents are increasing by double digits percentages.

It is important to remember that purchasing a property always involves a trade-off between what one desires and what is affordable, regardless of the market conditions. For example, while a four-bed detached house may be out of reach, a larger and older three-bed semi-detached property may be a more realistic option (and probably have similar square footage).

Tunbridge Wells landlords looking to invest in buy-to-let homes – now may be a good time, as rising rents could offer attractive returns.

Of the 277 properties let in Tunbridge Wells since the 1st January 2023, the average rent achieved has been £1,422 per month. This is a significant drop in the number of properties let in the same first seven weeks of the years of 2017/18/19 and a massive increase in rents.

Finally, the newspapers will be full of news about house price drops in the coming months. All the indexes report house sales where the sale agreed price was offered nine to eleven months ago and completed (i.e., monies and keys handed over) three or four months ago. This peculiar time lag means the house price data is nearly a year old before publication.

So, if you decide to buy a home on that information, you are using old property data. In late 2021/early 2022, there were 30+ viewings per property, and people paid way over the asking price to secure a property. Now there is more 'normality' in the Tunbridge Wells housing market; today's prices are also more normal (at or slightly below the realistic asking price). So yes, the house price indexes will show a reduction in house prices. The newspapers will say house prices are crashing, yet when it is explained I have above ... whilst it is not a newspaper clickbait title - it is the truth and it’s more of a return to more 'normal house prices'.

So, prepare for clickbait newspaper headlines of a house price crash (because ‘bad news sells newspapers’ as the saying goes).

Also, prepare for the doom-mongers to quote the bad news of the earnings-to-house prices ratio at one of its highest levels ever.

Earnings-to-house price ratios are a poor measurement of health in the UK property market. Instead, I believe Nationwide's measure of first-time buyer mortgage payments as a percentage of take-home pay is better (as it is actual pound notes out of actual pay packets).

The Nationwide measure of first-time buyer mortgage payments as a percentage of take-home pay has grown for first-time buyers from 30.4% in Q4 2021 to 39.4% in Q4 2022 … a

massive rise! Yet mortgage interest rates have dropped since then (so that percentage will fall). Also, to give some context, let us not forget that percentage in 1989 was 48.4%.

Ultimately, Tunbridge Wells homeowners and landlords should decide, based on their unique circumstances, rather than being swayed by newspaper headlines or general market trends. Anyone uncertain about the property market's future should contact me for my opinion, advice and guidance.

What Will Rishi Sunak as PM Mean for Royal Tunbridge Wells House Prices?

​Royal Tunbridge Wells Starter Homes are 43.8% Cheaper Today Than in 1989

Even though the average value of a Tunbridge Wells first-time buyer property has risen by

331.8% since 1989 to £448,070, the monthly payments Tunbridge Wells first-time buyers

must make on their mortgages as a proportion of their take-home pay is 43.8% less today

compared to 1989.

Today, according to the Nationwide Building Society…

the average Tunbridge Wells first-time buyer only needs to pay out

41.6% of their household take-home pay on their mortgage

payments, compared to 74.1% in 1989 (i.e., just over two fifths less).

You might say 1989 was 33 years ago, a long time ago and not relevant to today. I would

agree.

So next, I looked a little closer to home, and in 2007…

the average Tunbridge Wells first-time buyer had to spend 49.5% of

their household income on mortgage payments (i.e., 15.8%

proportionally cheaper than today).

So why do I say all these things?

Last month, the Bank of England revealed that its Financial Policy Committee would be

removing their mortgage market affordability test on people taking out mortgages in

August.

The test was introduced in 2014 to ensure the UK didn’t have a repeat of the 2008 Credit

Crunch and particularly hit first-time buyers with what they could afford to buy. This rule change means Tunbridge Wells property buyers could soon be able to borrow thousands of pounds more and purchase larger homes.

The decision to withdraw the affordability test certainly raised eyebrows in the press,

primarily as the Bank of England has raised interest rates five times in the last six months to

try and reduce rising inflation. Yet, as stated in the first part of this article, Tunbridge Wells first-time buyers are comfortably paying their mortgages compared to previous years –

therefore everything should be ok with this rule change.

The old rules tested home buyers on mortgage repayments if interest rates rose to 6%/7%,

yet the Bank thought that rule was too harsh. Not all rules have been changed, as the important Bank of England ‘loan to income ratio’ stays put.

The Bank were keen to stress that the mortgage market was not going to turn into a free-

for-all, as it did in the mid-2000s when the likes of Northern Rock were offering 125%

mortgages, and a sixth of all UK mortgages were given without proof of income.

I believe it will have a progressive effect on the Tunbridge Wells property market.

Many Tunbridge Wells tenants who have been paying rents far more than actual mortgage payments for the same Tunbridge Wells home, but have failed affordability assessments regardless, will now be able to get on the property ladder.

The rule change should open the Tunbridge Wells property market up a little more and

allow house prices to grow in Tunbridge Wells.

I advise anyone who has been refused a mortgage on affordability in the past to speak to a

mortgage arranger. If you don't know of one, drop a message to me, and I will give you

details of mortgage arrangers you could talk to.

​

What Was the Average Royal Tunbridge Wells House Price in 1952?

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Well, what a weekend the Jubilee was. Street parties, gatherings in the park, the purple bunting, egg and cress sandwiches, union jack flags, cheese and pineapple on cocktail sticks, and let's not forget the trifle – the Platinum Jubilee Party.  And no decent party is worth its salt without a game or a quiz.

So, if you have post-Jubilee blues, let me ask you, how much was the average Tunbridge Wells house worth in 1952?

To start with, let me look at what a property is worth today in Tunbridge Wells.

The average price paid for a property in the Tunbridge Wells area in the last 12 months was £531,440. 

Now, let's go back to 1952. Sir Winston Churchill was the Prime Minister, Newcastle won the FA Cup, London was covered in the Great Smog, free prescriptions on the NHS ended (it cost 1 shilling or 5p in new money), and King George IV, at the age of 56 passed away on the 6th February, meaning Princess Elizabeth became the Queen - as for housing…

The average price of a Tunbridge Wells home in 1952 was £4,339.

This means Tunbridge Wells house prices are 121 times higher since 1952. 

Yet over the last 70 years, the country has been subjected to 4.5% per annum inflation.

The 1952 Tunbridge Wells home is equivalent to £83,448 today when adjusted for inflation.

This means Tunbridge Wells house prices have increased by 504.8% in real terms since 1952.

So, does that mean house prices are more expensive today compared to 1952?

In 1952, the average annual male wage was £452, 8 shillings and 1 pence, meaning the average Tunbridge Wells house was 9.59 times the average wage. Today the average home is 8.85 times the average wage.

Yet let us not forget the average mortgage payment in 1952 was £11 per month. The average Brit earned £34 per month, meaning 32.3% of the household income was going on mortgage payments, whilst nationally today, according to the Nationwide, it stands at 28%. 

It's cheaper, in real terms, to buy a property in 2022 than in 1952.

 And that’s the point, some things in ‘real terms’ (real terms being true spending power of the money after taking into account wages, costs and inflation) were more expensive and some cheaper 70 years ago. For example, in 1952, petrol was equivalent (in today’s inflation-adjusted prices) to £1.02 per litre, a pint of beer £2, half a dozen eggs £2.20, cheddar cheese £2.40 per 500g, a basic radio £430, a Hoover £530 and a 12-inch TV £1,600.

So back to property, the Queen’s reign has seen some amazing house price rises in the UK, yet that growth hasn’t always been in constant upwards direction as we have had a couple of dips along the way.

We had a house price crash in 1990, when the average value of a Tunbridge Wells property dropped from £130,582 to £108,147 in 1996, only for them to start rising again.

 

Tunbridge Wells saw another house price crash between 2008 and 2009, and the average house price dropped from £390,627to £333,015 in a year.

 

So, what else has changed about property and housing since the Queen came onto the throne?

 

In 1952, only 32% of people owned their own home, whilst 50% of people rentedfrom a private landlord and 18% rented a council house.

 

By the time of the Silver Jubilee in 1977, 56% of people owned their own home, with 12% of people privately renting and 32% rented from the council.

 

Come the Golden Jubilee in 2002, 70% of people owned their own home, with 11% of people privately renting and 19% rented from the council.

 

Today, 63% of people own their own home, 20% of people privately rent and 17% rent from the council.

 

So, to conclude, as we look forward into the 21st century, I am sure the property market will be totally different again in 70 years. 

 

I hope you enjoyed reading this article and do share it with your friends if you find it interesting.

 

PS for all you Rightmove fans, the average Tunbridge Wells apartment in 1952 was worth £2,388, and a terraced home in Tunbridge Wells could be bought for on average £3,557.