50% of Royal Tunbridge Wells house sellers in 2022 had only been in their old home on average 5 years and 24 weeks

The share of Brits moving each year has been declining since the late 1980s (when at one stage, people moved every eight years), yet since the pandemic's beginning, something has appeared to upset that trend.

Newspaper stories and social media posts painted a picture of homeowners moving from the city centres to its suburbs, from the suburbs to the towns and countryside around the UK. Areas like the Cotswolds and coastal towns around the country got swamped by the race for space, significantly affecting housing markets (including Tunbridge Wells).

But how many Brits moved? And how long had they been in their homes before they moved?

In Great Britain, there are 28.3 million households, of which 19.3 million are owner-occupied and 4.43m owned by private buy-to-let landlords.

There is £7,035 trillion of residential property in private hands.

Eight years before the initial lockdown in 2020, an average of 79,646 properties were sold each month in the UK, meaning just under a million UK households move home annually.

Therefore, in those 8 years, the average British homeowner moved every 20 years and 4 months.

So, what uplift was there in people moving home after the first lockdown in 2020?

In 2021 and early 2022, an average of 102,021 people moved home monthly, taking the average move time to once every 16 years. So even though there was an uplift in people moving home, it was nothing like the 1980s.

It shows that in the 21 st Century, once you have succeeded in buying a property you can call home, there isn't much enthusiasm to move again.

What is happening in the Tunbridge Wells property market now?

We love our homes in Tunbridge Wells, but most of us (including myself) still want to better our lives with a larger house, better area etc., which typically requires us to climb up the Tunbridge Wells property ladder.

Yet, with Tunbridge Wells house prices having risen by 432.4% in the last 25 years, the cost of going up the next rung on the Tunbridge Wells property ladder has become prohibitive.

Everyone remembers back to the 1980s, when we had an upbeat booming property market as a backdrop, and British homeowners moved home every eight years; so now, with the average move time in the mid to late teens (in years), this equates to each homeowner only moving around three to four times in their adult lifetime.

Or could it be something else?

We all know the phrase, “lies, damn lies and statistics.

The home moving statistics above hide some great details about the British property market.

When British homeowners get into their 50s, 60s and beyond, their inclination to move home drops like the proverbial stone.

The average time a homeowner without a mortgage moves home is 24 years and 27 weeks (and just over 7 out of 10 outright homeowners, i.e. without a mortgage, are 65 or older).

Homeowners with a mortgage tend to be younger to middle-aged.

Homeowners with a mortgage move on average every 10 years and 11 weeks.

So, whilst I cannot determine which house seller has a mortgage and which doesn't, I can look at how quickly people move home in Tunbridge Wells.

Therefore, I have taken a look at the last 50 property sales in Tunbridge Wells and found some interesting results.

The average Tunbridge Wells homeowner had only been in
their home on average 13 years and 18 weeks before they sold.

Yet the devil is in the detail.

There appears to be a two-speed Tunbridge Wells property market …

50% of Tunbridge Wells house sellers in 2022 had
only been in their old home on average 5 years and 24 weeks.

Then, let's split the findings into quarters.

• Top 25% fastest Tunbridge Wells homeowners in 2022 moved on average after 3 years & 26 weeks
• The following 25% of fastest Tunbridge Wells homeowners in 2022 moved on average after 7 years & 16 weeks
• The next 25% of Tunbridge Wells homeowners in 2022 moved on average after 16 years & 0 weeks
• Whilst the 25% slowest Tunbridge Wells homeowners in 2022 moved on average after 26 years & 3 weeks

When looking at the properties that fall into the slower time bands (i.e., the ones that don’t move/sell so often), they tend to be the larger properties where the homeowners have lived often for 30 or 40 years.

Maybe, the one lesson from these statistics is that once homeowners get into their 60’s and 70’s, their tendency and inclination to move home declines significantly.

This means the homes on the lower rungs of the Tunbridge Wells property ladder are selling

quickly (as younger aged homeowners occupy them) ... yet once Tunbridge Wells people

tend to get older, their tendency to move diminishes.

This obstructs the younger generation of Tunbridge Wells homeowners from wanting to buy

the bigger Tunbridge Wells properties these mature Tunbridge Wells homeowners live in.

What is holding the older generation back from selling and downsizing to free up family

homes for families that desperately need them? Some will be apathy, and some will be

wanting to hold on to the homes they brought their families up in, yet the bottom line is …

as a country, we must reconsider how we can encourage (not force) older homeowners to sell their large homes to release them to the younger families that desperately need them.

Some recent articles I have written suggested tax breaks, yet the government doesn't have the money to give massive tax breaks.

One thing I do know we, as a country, have seen (and will continue to see) a lot of demographic change together with an increasingly ageing population, so it’s not just about how many households we build but whether we are constructing the right kind of homes for the older generation?

Thought-provoking times are ahead for the Tunbridge Wells property market!

If you have a Tunbridge Wells property to sell in the coming months or years and want to know how this and other factors will affect you and your property ... without obligation, don't hesitate to call me.

Royal Tunbridge Wells Property Market Update:February 2023

• With the Bank of England raising interest rates and inflation high, what is happening in the Tunbridge Wells property market
• Are properties selling in Tunbridge Wells? And if so, what is selling?
• What will happen to the value of your Tunbridge Wells home?
• Read the article to find out what is happening to the Tunbridge Wells property market.

Now that February is here, the Tunbridge Wells (and British) property market is full of mixed messages.

 

Whilst the Bank of England increased the base rate nine times in 2022, meaning they are now at 3.5% (3% higher than 12 months ago), mortgage rates are now dropping. 

 

The local property market rocketed over the last few years because of the imbalance of the number of properties for sale versus the demand, with many more people looking to move home than there were properties available. 

 

Now, as we are over the first month of 2023, we are experiencing a steadier housing market, where homebuyers have the time and opportunity to ensure they find the right home for them. 

 

The days of 50 viewers per property on the first weekend of marketing, frenzied buyers outbidding each other by increasing their offers by tens of thousands of pounds over the asking price has become the exception and not the norm.

 

I often get asked my thoughts on the Tunbridge Wells property market (hence these blog articles) and at this time of year, I get asked my forecast for the year ahead.

 

The one big thing I have noticed is the imbalance of what is coming on the market for sale versus what is selling.

 

For example, 38.2% of properties that came on the market nationally in November and December 2022 had an asking price of £250,000 or less, yet 45.6% of the properties sold subject to contract since 1^st January 2023 have been £250,000 or less. 

 

That doesn't sound like a lot, yet it makes a massive difference to the property market.  

 

However, it’s very easy to look at national averages, regional averages and, of course, local averages. Yet the property market is just one market nationally, as there isn't just one property market.

 

However, the same pattern is seen in the higher-priced properties. These higher-priced properties are selling more slowly than the lower-priced properties. Therefore, the need for those larger properties to be more realistic in price is paramount to stand out from the crowd, especially with the next point.

 

Evidence suggests there is a growth of buyers, who are looking to find a home before putting theirs onto the market. This was unthinkable last year, yet as the property market returns to normality, this will be seen more and more.

 

What are my thoughts?

 

Firstly, the time scale of how long it will take to sell a Tunbridge Wells home.

 

I expect to see the time it takes to sell a Tunbridge Wells home increase from 55 days in 2022 to a more 'normal' housing market of around 70 days.

Secondly, the imbalance of the property market. 

 

A greater number of larger homes are coming on the market because (as mentioned recently in a previous blog post) of the higher number of mature homeowners looking to downsize. This is because these larger homes have become much more expensive to heat, and as many of the occupants are on fixed incomes with their pensions, they are downsizing to cut costs.

 

Thirdly, that brings me to talk about energy efficiency. 

 

Many buyers have started to ask about a property's Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating. I recommend to homeowners considering moving in the spring or summer to have an EPC done on their property now, as there may be points that could easily be rectified and improved from one EPC rating band to another. 

 

This would mean you will get a lot more interest and a better price for your property. If you need any help or guidance in organising an EPC on your property (even if you are not selling for six/twelve months), do not hesitate to me give me a call.

 

So, what is happening in the property market in terms of new properties (aka new listings) and what is selling?

 

91 properties have sold (STC) in the Tunbridge Wells area since 1^st January 2023.

(Tunbridge Wells being TN1/2/3/4).

However, it's essential to look at what is selling, and the most active price range is the £400k to £500k range, where 18 properties have been sold subject to contract (representing 19.7% of sales).

Looking at what is coming onto the market in the same time frame … 

145 properties have come onto the market in the Tunbridge Wells area since 1^st January 2023.

Interestingly, the price range with the most listings is the £400k to £500k range. 

 

This means Tunbridge Wells is bucking the national trend (mentioned above) where nationally, the lower to middle property market is where the sales are, but the properties coming onto the market are slightly higher in price, yet it’s the same in Tunbridge Wells.

 

Any homeowners with properties in price ranges that aren’t selling so well need to be ‘on point’ to stand out from the crowd regarding their marketing, be spot on regarding their pricing (compared to the growing competition of other larger homes for sale) and now more than ever, their EPC rating (especially if they are on the cusp between two EPC bands).

 

Before I conclude, you might wonder why I have not mentioned house prices.

 

Well, what will happen to Tunbridge Wells house prices in 2023 is something I am not sure of.

 

(Yes, I know that level of frankness is strange coming from an estate/letting agent). 

 

I know the prices being achieved for homes in the spring of 2022 (when everyone was out bidding each other) are not being achieved today. It all depends how you look at it. 

 

Are local house prices dropping or are they just returning to normal? I would say the latter. 

 

However, looking at house prices as a ‘bellwether’ for the health of the property market has flaws.  

 

Many economists and property market commentators believe transaction numbers (the number of properties sold) give a more accurate and truthful indicator of the property market's health than just house values alone. 

 

The reason is three-fold. 

 

Firstly, most people also buy a home when they sell their own, so if property values drop by 10% or rise by 10% on the one you are selling, it will do the same on the one you are buying - meaning to judge the health of a property market on house prices is very one dimensional.  

 

Secondly, as most people move up market when they do move home, if the price of the one they’re selling might not be as much as they would've achieved in 2022 (if they drop), the price that they will pay on the one they want to buy will be lower. Thus, it will cost them less to move upmarket!

 

E.g. Last year, your Tunbridge Wells home was worth £400,000, and the one you wanted to buy would have been £750,000. Let’s say local house prices did drop 10% in 2023 (which I don’t know if they will); your home would be only worth £360,000. Yet the one you want to buy would now be worth £675,000. So last year, it would have cost £350k to move, but if house prices drop 10%, the move would cost £315k, saving you £35,000.

 

Third and finally, moving home is a human thing. Property habitually delivers a robust emotional connection with homeowners - a connection that few would attribute to their other investments like their stock market investments or building society savings passbook.  

 

Moving home could be described as a human journey, moving from one chapter of one’s life to another. 

 

Therefore, when people do move home, it shows they are moving forward in their lives, which gives a great indicator of the property market's health.

 

It’s going to be an interesting year for the 2023

Tunbridge Wells property market.

 

My opinion. Do what is suitable for you, your family and your finances. 

 

Ignore the newspapers and look at the facts in hand and if you want a frank chat about the Tunbridge Wells property market, irrespective of whether you want to sell or not, call me. I might not tell you what you want to hear, but I will tell you what you need to hear.